Marin County Real Estate Market Report Q3 2016


Get a high-level look at what’s happening and what to expect in this insightful report into the Marin County real estate market.

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Commentary provided by Selma Hepp, Pacific Union Vice President of Business Intelligence and Chief Economist

Marin County: Q3 Results

After a strong finish to the second quarter, third-quarter sales activity in Marin County slowed. Buyers remained cautious, and homes took longer to sell. While sales activity in the affordable range – homes priced below $1 million – continued at a relatively steady pace, the most notable slowing was seen for homes priced between $1 million and $3 million.

In general, higher-priced inventory in Marin County has faced a series of challenges this year. The inventory of homes for sale in the higher price range has built up over the last year, and indicators suggest a slight pause in the market. At the same time, the inventory of lower-priced homes has not budged markedly and remains low. Nevertheless, sellers across all price ranges were less likely to receive premiums, which were smaller than last year. Buyers remained interested and open houses were busy, but the sense of urgency seen in previous years has dissipated.

Looking Forward: Uncertainty surrounding the presidential election and the consequent instability in financial markets will continue to keep a lid on higher-end market activity. At the same time, the lack of affordable homes in Marin County remains a challenge.

Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price

The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price.

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Months’ Supply of Inventory

The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market.

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Average Days on the Market

Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches “pending” status, meaning all contingencies have been removed and both parties are just waiting to close.

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Percentage of Properties Under Contract

Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes.

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Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the final list price, which may include price reductions from the original list price, determines the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount. It also indicates the level of sales activity in a region.

A Closer Look at Marin County

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Listings Selling Over Asking Price

Bay Area 10-Year Overview

Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the third quarter of 2016, with a glance back at the 10 preceding third quarters.