Q3 Marin Market Update: Is it a buyers market?

Yearly Comparison

Q3 2022 V. Q3 2021

$1.750M

MEDIAN SALES PRICE UP 1.2% ▲

$856

MEDIAN PRICE/SQFT UP 4.4% ▲

18

AVG. DAYS ON MARKET UP 28.6% ▲

525

PROPERTIES SOLD DOWN 27.8% ▼

Monthly Comparison

Q3 2022

As a whole, the third quarter of 2022 continued to see a slowdown in the market due to uncertainty, volatility in financial markets and the rise in interest rates; resulting in lower sales numbers and home-price trends. However, Marin County is proving to be more resilient than other Bay Area counties. While monthly home trends are slowly declining, the median sales price for single-family homes recorded 1.2% higher than in Q3 of last year and we even saw an uptick in the median sales price from August to September. Similarly, the median price per square foot increased by 4.4% year-over-year and 6.6% from August to September. We anticipate sales numbers to continue at their relative pace until later November when the winter slowdown historically begins.

YEARLY COMPARISON

YEARLY REGIONAL COMPARISON

Is it a buyer’s market?

We’re starting to see the market stabilize with opportunities for buyers to purchase homes at lower prices with less competition. Buyers do have a lot more negotiating power now, and that’s starting to bring prices down on certain homes, but there are still more buyers than there are sellers. In Marin, we’re seeing prices soften as buyers are being more conservative as interest rates rise, which can result in less competition on a specific property. However, there are still many properties in Marin selling over-asking with multiple offers.

Should we wait to buy a home?

In our opinion, there’s rarely a “perfect” time to buy a home. There's always a "catch." When interest rates were at record-lows (below 3%), buyer demand and competition spiked which caused sales prices to break records throughout the county. Today, interest rates are in the 5-6%+- range but buyers have less competition and more opportunities to purchase homes 5-15%+- below the asking price. We have also adopted some strategic negotiation tactics to bring our buyers' rates down and save on their monthly payments.

If you’re shopping for a home now, here’s how we see it:

There are more opportunities today to purchase a home at a lower price with less competition than 6-12+ months ago
Purchasing a home at a lower price locks in a lower property tax basis
Interest rates are rising and expected to go higher in 2023 before they go lower
It’s unlikely that interest rates will go as low as they did in 2021 and early 2022
When interest rates drop, more buyers will jump back into the market creating competition that will increase purchase prices and multiple offer situations
You cannot refinance your purchase price
You can refinance your mortgage when rates drop so consider your rate to be temporary

If you find a home you love now, go for it! We’re finding some really great deals out there for our clients.

Is it a bad time to sell?

In short, no! Our team is working with many motivated buyers eager to find a home in Marin. While prices are starting to soften, median sales prices and price per square are still up year over year. We’re also observing many properties in Marin currently selling over asking and breaking sales records. Strategic timing, proper home prep, marketing and pricing make all the difference in helping you reach your goals for selling.

Should we sell our home on or off-market?

That depends on your target timeline and desired outcome for selling your home. As we enter Winter, it may be worth exploring an off-market strategy versus an on-market strategy in the Spring. We work with our sellers to tailor a listing strategy specific to your home and goals. If you’re curious to learn more about why sellers take an off-market approach, click here for an article on why so many homes trade off-market in Marin.

Thinking of making a move?

Our team is happy to provide a complimentary home evaluation if you’re curious what your home would trade for in today’s market. If you’re considering making a move, reach out to one of our team members anytime.